Poverty, Local Government Performance, And Voting Behavior: A Approach Econometrics to Performance Evaluation In Election District Head

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between household poverty status, satisfaction with incumbent government performance, and voters’ decisions to re-elect the incumbent local government leader in Belu Regency, East Nusa Tenggara Province, Indonesia. The study employed a quantitative research design using a survey approach. Data were collected from 273 respondents selected through multistage random sampling. The variables consisted of household poverty status and satisfaction with incumbent government performance as independent variables, while the decision to re-elect the incumbent served as the dependent variable. All variables were measured using binary categories. Household poverty status was classified based on the applicable poverty threshold, while satisfaction with government performance and electoral preference were categorized according to respondents’ survey responses. The data were analyzed using binary logistic regression estimated through the Maximum Likelihood Estimation method in SPSS. The results show that household poverty status was not significantly associated with the decision to re-elect the incumbent (B = 0.005, p = 0.987, Exp(B) = 1.005). In contrast, satisfaction with incumbent government performance had a positive and statistically significant association with electoral preference (B = 3.009, p < 0.001, Exp(B) = 20.269). Respondents who were satisfied with the incumbent’s performance had substantially higher odds of supporting the incumbent’s re-election than those who were not satisfied. The findings suggest that voters’ evaluations of government performance were more strongly associated with electoral support than household poverty status. Therefore, economic disadvantage did not appear to independently weaken performance-based electoral accountability within the estimated model.