Analysis of The Effect of Poverty Level, Unemployment, and Population on The Human Development Index in Solo Raya During 2014–2024

Muhammad Akhsal Daffa Rasendriya; Muhammad  Arif

doi:10.71435/736506

Authors

Muhammad Akhsal Daffa Rasendriya Development Economics Study Program, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta
Muhammad Arif Development Economics Study Program, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.71435/736506

Keywords:

Human Development, Poverty, Unemployment, Population, Gross Regional Domestic Product

Abstract

Human development is a key indicator of regional welfare and sustainable development. Understanding the factors that influence the Human Development Index (HDI) is therefore essential for designing effective development policies. This study examines the effects of poverty, unemployment, population, and Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) on HDI in the Solo Raya region, Indonesia, during the 2014–2024 period. The study employs a quantitative approach using panel data regression analysis. To determine the most appropriate estimation model, the Common Effect Model (CEM), Fixed Effect Model (FEM), and Random Effect Model (REM) were compared using the Chow Test and Hausman Test. The results indicate that the Fixed Effect Model is the most suitable model, suggesting the presence of significant regional heterogeneity across districts and the city within Solo Raya. The findings reveal that poverty, population, and GRDP significantly affect HDI, while unemployment has no statistically significant effect. Among the explanatory variables, GRDP exerts the strongest positive influence on HDI, highlighting the importance of economic performance in supporting human development. Population also contributes positively to HDI, indicating the potential role of demographic resources in regional development. The positive relationship between poverty and HDI suggests that government interventions and social protection programs may have mitigated some of the adverse effects of poverty on human development outcomes. These findings imply that improvements in HDI depend not only on economic conditions but also on the effectiveness of local governance in translating economic resources into better education, health, and living standards. Therefore, policies promoting inclusive economic growth, human capital development, and integrated public service delivery are crucial for achieving sustainable human development.

References

Al Fian, M. I. N., & Bintoro, N. S. (2024). The Effect Of Government Expenditure On Education, Health Sector, And Gross Regional Domestic Product On Human Developtment Index. Contemporary Studies in Economic, Finance and Banking, 3(2), 367-379. https://doi.org/10.21776/csefb.2023.03.2.09

Anand, S., & Sen, A. (2000). The income component of the human development index. Journal of human development, 1(1), 83-106. https://doi.org/10.1080/14649880050008782

Andriyani, R. F., Setyowati, E., Hasmarini, M. I., Kuncoro, T. G., & Soebagyo, D. (2024). Determinants of community welfare in seven ASEAN countries in 2012–2021. Al Qalam: Jurnal Ilmiah Keagamaan dan Kemasyarakatan, 18(2), 1137–1151. https://doi.org/10.35931/aq.v18i2.3393

Atina, N., & Setyowati, E. (2022). Determinants of poverty levels in the Madiun Residency using panel data. Ekonomikawan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan, 22(1), 89–99. https://doi.org/10.30596/ekonomikawan.v22i1.9987

Avdagic, S., & Salardi, P. (2013). Tenuous link: labour market institutions and unemployment in advanced and new market economies. Socio-Economic Review, 11(4), 739-769. https://doi.org/10.1093/ser/mwt009

Bykova, V., Khasanova, M., & Polonkoeva, F. (2024). The role of human capital in economic development: An analysis of factors contributing to economic growth. Reliability: Theory & Applications, 19(SI 6 (81)), 1676-1682.

Cremin, P., & Nakabugo, M. G. (2012). Education, development and poverty reduction: A literature critique. International Journal of Educational Development, 32(4), 499-506. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijedudev.2012.02.015

Currie, J. (2009). Healthy, wealthy, and wise: Socioeconomic status, poor health in childhood, and human capital development. JoUrnal of economIc lIteratUre, 47(1), 87-122.

Dosi, G., Pereira, M. C., Roventini, A., & Virgillito, M. E. (2018). The effects of labour market reforms upon unemployment and income inequalities: an agent-based model. Socio-Economic Review, 16(4), 687-720. https://doi.org/10.1093/ser/mwx054

Ekeocha, D. O., & Iheonu, C. O. (2021). Household‐level poverty, consumption poverty thresholds, income inequality and quality of lives in sub‐Saharan Africa. African Development Review, 33(2), 234-248. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.12534

Ferraz, D., Mariano, E. B., & Hartmann, D. (2025). Transforming gross domestic product into human development: Concept and determinants of social efficiency. Social Indicators Research, 179(1), 339-370. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-025-03598-7

Ferreira, I. A., Gisselquist, R. M., & Tarp, F. (2022). On the impact of inequality on growth, human development, and governance. International Studies Review, 24(1), viab058. https://doi.org/10.1093/isr/viab058

Ghislandi, S., Sanderson, W. C., & Scherbov, S. (2018). A simple measure of human development: The human life indicator. Population and development review, 45(1), 219. https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12205

Gulcemal, T. (2020). Effect of human development index on GDP for developing countries: A panel data analysis. Journal of Economics Finance and Accounting, 7(4), 338-345. https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2020.1307

Gweshengwe, B., & Hassan, N. H. (2020). Defining the characteristics of poverty and their implications for poverty analysis. Cogent Social Sciences, 6(1), 1768669. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311886.2020.1768669

Hansen, H. K., & Eriksson, R. H. (2023). The public sector and regional development: Why public sector employment remains a black box in economic geography, and how should we open it?. Progress in Human Geography, 47(6), 833-849. https://doi.org/10.1177/03091325231205094

Haq, R., & Zia, U. (2013). Multidimensional wellbeing: An index of quality of life in a developing economy. Social indicators research, 114(3), 997-1012. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-012-0186-6

Haque, M. T., Ibrahim, M. W., Maakip, I. B., Azad, M. A. K., Chowdhury, N., Habib, A., & Bayezid, K. M. (2025). A Frame-Work Development: Considering All Aspect of Human Capital Development (HCD) to Achieve Sustainability. TWIST, 20(3), 50-61.

Hariram, N. P., Mekha, K. B., Suganthan, V., & Sudhakar, K. (2023). Sustainalism: An integrated socio-economic-environmental model to address sustainable development and sustainability. Sustainability, 15(13), 10682. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151310682

Hasibuan, R. R. A., Kartika, A., Suwito, F. A., & Agustin, L. (2022). The influence of gross regional domestic product (GRDP) on the poverty level in Medan City. Reslaj: Religion Education Social Laa Roiba Journal, 4(3), 683–693. https://doi.org/10.47467/reslaj.v4i3.887

Hinnig, P. D. F., Monteiro, J. S., De Assis, M. A. A., Levy, R. B., Peres, M. A., Perazi, F. M., ... & Canto, G. D. L. (2018). Dietary patterns of children and adolescents from high, medium and low human development countries and associated socioeconomic factors: a systematic review. Nutrients, 10(4), 436. https://doi.org/10.3390/nu10040436

Howell, D., Baker, D., Glyn, A., & Schmitt, J. (2013). Are protective labor market institutions at the root of unemployment? A critical review of the evidence. A critical review of the evidence. Capitalism and Society, 2(1).

Huazheva, A., Alieva, E., & Akoeva, M. (2024). The Influence of The Human Factor on The Economic Growth Of Regions and Countries In The Context of Sustainable Development. Reliability: Theory & Applications, 19(SI 6 (81)), 1125-1132.

Hunter, W., & Sugiyama, N. B. (2009). Democracy and social policy in Brazil: Advancing basic needs, preserving privileged interests. Latin American Politics and Society, 51(2), 29-58. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1548-2456.2009.00047.x

Ita, O. (2025). AI and Business Intelligence for Economic Growth and Public Sector Transformation. Journal of Institutional Research, Big Data Analytics and Innovation, 1, 144-156.

Karenina, S., M., & S. (2022). Analysis of gross regional domestic product of Gerbangkertosusila area, East Java Province. Journal of Economic Development Dynamics, 5(1), 57–68. https://doi.org/10.33005/jdep.v5i1.317

Kiha, E. K., Seran, S., & Seuk, G. (2021). Pengaruh Inflasi, Produk Domestik Regional Bruto Dan Upah Minimum Regional Terhadap Indeks Pembangunan Manusia Propinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur. INVEST: Jurnal Inovasi Bisnis dan Akuntansi, 2(1), 41-56. https://doi.org/10.55583/invest.v2i1.128

Kim, H. S. (2017). Patterns of economic development: correlations affecting economic growth and quality of life in 222 countries. Politics & Policy, 45(1), 83-104. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12190

Kruk, M. E., Gage, A. D., Arsenault, C., Jordan, K., Leslie, H. H., Roder-DeWan, S., ... & Pate, M. (2018). High-quality health systems in the Sustainable Development Goals era: time for a revolution. The Lancet global health, 6(11), e1196-e1252.

Landorf, H., Doscher, S., & Rocco, T. (2008). Education for sustainable human development: Towards a definition. Theory and Research in Education, 6(2), 221-236. https://doi.org/10.1177/1477878508091114

Lapian, A. L. C. P., Walewangko, E. N., & Yapanto, L. M. (2023). The Effect of Population, Human Development Index, and Gross Regional Domestic Product on Poor Population. International Journal of Professional Business Review: Int. J. Prof. Bus. Rev., 8(5), 133.

Leal Filho, W., Tripathi, S. K., Andrade Guerra, J. B. S. O. D., Giné-Garriga, R., Orlovic Lovren, V., & Willats, J. (2019). Using the sustainable development goals towards a better understanding of sustainability challenges. International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology, 26(2), 179-190. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504509.2018.1505674

Levy, B., & Fukuyama, F. (2010). Development strategies: integrating governance and growth. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, (5196).

Llena-Nozal, A., Martin, N., & Murtin, F. (2019). The economy of well-being: Creating opportunities for people's well-being and economic growth. OECD Statistics Working Papers, 2019(2), 0_1-54.

Mahroji, D., & Nurkhasanah, I. (2019). The effect of the Human Development Index on the unemployment rate in Banten Province. Jurnal Ekonomi-Qu, 9(1), 51–72. https://doi.org/10.35448/jequ.v9i1.5436

Manyanga, T., Tremblay, M. S., Chaput, J. P., Katzmarzyk, P. T., Fogelholm, M., Hu, G., ... & Broyles, S. T. (2017). Socioeconomic status and dietary patterns in children from around the world: different associations by levels of country human development?. BMC Public Health, 17(1), 457. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-017-4383-8

Mignaqui, V. (2014). Sustainable development as a goal: social, environmental and economic dimensions. The International Journal of Social Quality, 4(1), 57-77. https://doi.org/10.3167/IJSQ.2014.040105

Mikhaylov, S. J., Esteve, M., & Campion, A. (2018). Artificial intelligence for the public sector: opportunities and challenges of cross-sector collaboration. Philosophical transactions of the royal society a: mathematical, physical and engineering sciences, 376(2128). https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2017.0357

Moldovan, F., Blaga, P., Moldovan, L., & Bataga, T. (2022). An innovative framework for sustainable development in healthcare: the human rights assessment. International journal of environmental research and public health, 19(4), 2222. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19042222

Nurnaningsih, L., Riyanto, W. H., & Susilowati, D. (2019). Pengaruh Jumlah Penduduk, Tingkat Kemiskinan Dan Jumlah Pengganguran Terhadap Indeks Pembangunan Manusia Kabupaten/Kota Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Barat. Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi JIE, 3(4), 505-516.

Primandari, N. R. (2019). Pengaruh Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Dan Pengangguran Terhadap Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (Ipm) Di Provinsi Sumatera Selatan Periode Tahun 2004–2018. PARETO: Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Kebijakan Publik, 2(2), 25-34.

Putri, N. M., & Muljaningsih, S. (2022). Analysis of the influence of the unemployment index, health services index, and education index on the Human Development Index (HDI) in Bojonegoro Regency. EQUITY: Jurnal Ekonomi, 10(1), 59–71. https://doi.org/10.33019/equity.v10i1.83

Rodríguez-Pose, A., & Wilkie, C. (2017). Revamping local and regional development through place-based strategies. Cityscape, 19(1), 151-170.

Rosyid, A., Rohani, S. T., Shabila, S., & Damayanti, E. (2025). The influence of education, health, and unemployment on the Human Development Index (HDI) in Indonesia for the period 2021–2023. Jurnal Kompetensi Ilmu Sosial, 3(2), 111–123. https://doi.org/10.29138/jkis.v3i2.57

Satterthwaite, D. (2011). How urban societies can adapt to resource shortage and climate change. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 369(1942), 1762-1783. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0350

Siregar, Z. (2024). The effect of education, health and social expenditure allocations on the Human Development Index (HDI) level of the city district aceh province. Journal of Environmental and Development Studies, 5(01), 25-30.

Šlaus, I., & Jacobs, G. (2011). Human capital and sustainability. Sustainability, 3(1), 97-154. https://doi.org/10.3390/su3010097

Teece, D. J. (2000). Firm capabilities and economic development: Implications for the newly industrializing economies. Technology, learning and innovation: Experiences of newly industrializing economies, 44(3), 105-128.

Uddin, M. A., Ali, M. H., & Masih, M. (2021). Institutions, human capital and economic growth in developing countries. Studies in Economics and Finance, 38(2), 361-383. https://doi.org/10.1108/SEF-10-2019-0407

Weckroth, M., Kemppainen, T., & Sørensen, J. F. L. (2015). Predicting the gross domestic product (GDP) of 289 NUTS regions in Europe with subjective indicators for human and social capital. Regional Studies, Regional Science, 2(1), 312-331.